CNA Revisits Central Asia to Assess the Impact of China’s Landmark Infrastructure Project as It Celebrates Its 10th Anniversary
CENTRAL ASIA: Ten years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during a visit to Kazakhstan. This vast infrastructure project, often referred to as the new Silk Road, aims to revolutionize world trade by facilitating rail transport from China to Europe, bypassing the traditional sea routes.
Since its launch, the BRI has rapidly expanded, significantly enhancing China’s economic and political influence globally. As China marks the 10th anniversary of the initiative this year, Beijing reports that over US$2 trillion in contracts have been signed worldwide. CNA visited Central Asia, the birthplace of the BRI, to take stock of the changes it has brought to the region.
Kazakhstan: A Strategic Transit Hub
The Khorgos Gateway, located at the strategic junction of China’s northwest border with Kazakhstan, serves as one of the BRI’s most prominent projects. Goods from China are transferred to Kazakh trains here before continuing their journey to Europe, due to the difference in railway gauge between the two countries.
The overland route through Kazakhstan’s landlocked terrain saves over half the time compared to traditional sea routes, making it a crucial transit hub for trade. However, growth has been sluggish in recent years, impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has forced operators to seek alternative routes.
Mr. Rustembekov Almas, an operations manager at Khorgos Gateway, noted that despite the challenges, the facility remains essential to the local economy, creating jobs and boosting the region’s economic activity. “We’ve seen a reduction in transshipment volume, but we are adjusting with alternative routes through Azerbaijan and Georgia,” he said.
Local Views: A Win-Win Situation
Despite critics accusing China of “debt-trap diplomacy” through the BRI, which involves offering large loans to developing countries, local stakeholders in Kazakhstan view the initiative as mutually beneficial. Almas believes that the project has been a win-win, with China’s manufacturing growth benefiting Central Asia as a key transit point for goods traveling westward.
Locals in Kazakhstan also welcome the economic ties, particularly the access to affordable Chinese goods, which they believe contributes positively to the local economy. One resident said, “Chinese goods are of decent quality, not too expensive, and this deeper relationship is a positive step for our economy.”
Uzbekistan: Chinese Investment on the Rise
Neighboring Uzbekistan has also benefited from increased Chinese investments as part of the BRI. The number of Chinese companies operating in Uzbekistan grew to over 2,000 last year, reflecting the expanding role of China in the country’s economy.
Dr. Farkhod Tolipov, director of Knowledge Caravan, a research institution based in Tashkent, expressed a mixed view on the BRI’s impact, acknowledging its geopolitical aspects while recognizing the practical benefits for Central Asia. “China’s support has led to many promising infrastructure projects,” he said, citing the Qamchiq tunnel as an example. The 19.2 km tunnel, the longest in Central Asia, connects the Fergana Valley to the rest of Uzbekistan by rail, reducing travel time from six hours to just three.
Tourism and Cultural Ties
Uzbekistan is also leveraging its historical Silk Road heritage to attract international tourists. With a target of US$2.2 billion in tourism revenue by 2025, the government has been proactive in opening the country to visitors, even during the pandemic. Uzbekistan has made significant strides in easing visa requirements, offering a visa-free regime for citizens of 86 countries and e-visas for 57 others.
However, challenges such as weak infrastructure, limited hospitality facilities, and underdeveloped transportation and payment systems remain obstacles to the country’s tourism goals. Experts suggest that further development is needed for Uzbekistan to fully capitalize on its tourism potential.
China-Central Asia Relations: A Growing Partnership
The trade relationship between China and Central Asia has flourished over the past decade. Last year, two-way trade hit a record US$70 billion. With President Xi Jinping’s recent pledge of US$3.8 billion in financing support for the region, China’s commitment to deepening ties remains strong.
The BRI has played a pivotal role in fostering these connections, with China now poised to surpass Russia as the largest trading partner for many countries in Central Asia. As these nations continue to benefit from Chinese investments and infrastructure projects, their geopolitical and economic alignment with China is expected to grow.
Experts predict that the BRI will continue to shape the future of Central Asia, offering both opportunities and challenges for the region as it navigates the complex dynamics of its relationship with China.
