As tensions persist, Japan’s Prime Minister seeks to resolve longstanding issues with North Korea, but obstacles remain in the path of a potential summit.
TOKYO/SEOUL: Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is actively pursuing a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. If successful, this would be the first such meeting between the two countries in 20 years.
What’s the state of relations between Japan and North Korea? Historically, relations between Japan and North Korea have been marked by deep tension. Before Korea was split into North and South, Japan colonized the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945. While Japan normalized relations with South Korea in 1965, formal diplomatic ties with North Korea have never been established.
Japan’s interactions with North Korea have been primarily defined by distrust and demands for apologies related to atrocities committed during Japan’s colonial rule. A significant issue is the abduction of Japanese citizens by North Korea in the 1960s to train spies in Japanese language and culture. Though Pyongyang admitted to the kidnappings in 2002, the matter remains unresolved, with Japan claiming that North Korea has failed to explain the fate of several abductees.
What’s at stake in a potential summit? The primary issue between the two nations is the abductions. While Pyongyang returned five of the 17 officially identified abductees, Japan maintains that North Korea has not satisfactorily explained the disappearance of the others. Many family members of the abductees have died over the years, but the issue still resonates deeply in Japan. Resolving this at a summit would likely garner significant public support for Prime Minister Kishida.
Another point of contention is North Korea’s military developments. Japan is deeply concerned about North Korea’s weapons programs, particularly its nuclear-capable missiles, which are capable of striking targets in Japan, South Korea, and the United States. This threat has prompted Japan to increase its defense spending significantly.
Why is Prime Minister Kishida pushing for talks now? In 2023, Prime Minister Kishida expressed willingness to meet Kim Jong Un without preconditions in an effort to resolve all outstanding issues. Given challenges such as a domestic scandal involving the Liberal Democratic Party, a summit with North Korea could potentially boost Kishida’s approval ratings ahead of his party’s leadership election in September.
How has North Korea responded to the proposal? North Korea has been cautiously receptive. Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, has suggested that while she is open to dialogue, Japan must first refrain from raising issues like the abduction of Japanese nationals. She views Japan’s insistence on these matters as an attempt by Kishida to boost his domestic popularity rather than a genuine desire for reconciliation.
Some analysts believe that North Korea’s interest in a summit may stem from its broader foreign policy strategy. After its summit with Russia in 2023, North Korea has sought to expand its diplomatic engagements, and dialogue with Japan could be a part of this strategy. It might also signal a willingness to engage with the United States under the right conditions.
What happened in past summits? The first summit between Japan and North Korea took place in 2002, where Pyongyang acknowledged the abductions, and Japan agreed to discuss compensation for its colonial rule. However, the talks stalled as Japan insisted on a deeper investigation into the abductions. The two countries met again in 2004, but no further progress was made.
What are the chances of a summit now? For a summit to take place, North Korea would need to agree to address the abduction issue, and Japan would need to reciprocate. If diplomatic relations were established, Japan might offer economic assistance to North Korea, though this would be challenging due to international sanctions imposed on North Korea for its missile and nuclear activities.
Given the ongoing disputes and the deeply entrenched differences between the two countries, the prospect of a summit remains uncertain. Even if one occurs, many analysts remain skeptical about whether it will lead to meaningful progress or reconciliation.
