Experts warn of the potential for hazardous haze conditions, urging Singaporeans to take precautionary measures.
A new report from the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) has raised alarms about the high risk of severe transboundary haze affecting Southeast Asia in 2023, driven by the El Niño weather phenomenon. While not expected to reach the severity of the 2015 haze crisis, the report urges the public to prepare for the worst.
This is the first time since the SIIA began publishing the annual Haze Outlook report in 2019 that it has issued a “red” rating, signaling a high risk of severe haze. The report highlights several key factors contributing to the heightened risk, including weather patterns, government policies, and market conditions that could increase the likelihood of uncontrolled forest and peat fires.
According to the forecast, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to the region, exacerbating the risk of fires. The dry season, which is expected to last longer than in previous years, could extend into October, significantly raising the potential for haze.
Key Factors Driving the Haze Risk
The SIIA report attributes the red rating to three main factors:
Weather: Meteorological forecasts indicate a significant increase in temperatures and reduced rainfall, which could lead to a higher likelihood of forest and peat fires. This, in turn, would contribute to severe haze conditions across the region.
Government Policies: While the Indonesian government has made significant progress in fire prevention and suppression, the report notes that the effectiveness of these policies will be tested in the coming months. Collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial to mitigating the impact of the haze.
Market Conditions: Market responses, particularly in the agricultural sector, could also exacerbate the problem. Smaller plantation operators may respond to price signals by engaging in irresponsible land clearing practices, which would contribute to deforestation and haze.
El Niño and Haze: A Repeat of 2015?
The SIIA’s report is in line with predictions from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre, which has warned of an increased risk of transboundary haze between June and October. Experts are also predicting an 84% chance that this year’s El Niño will exceed moderate levels, with a 25% chance of a “super El Niño,” which would significantly raise the severity of the haze.
While the severity of the haze is expected to be lower than in 2015, when the pollutant standards index (PSI) in Singapore reached hazardous levels, experts warn that the situation could still be serious. According to Aaron Choo, a senior assistant director at SIIA, even in the worst-case scenario, the haze should not reach the severity of 2015 due to improvements in fire management and prevention by the Indonesian government.
In 2015, the haze cost Singapore an estimated S$1.83 billion, with schools closing, thousands of medical claims for illnesses caused by the pollution, and widespread public health impacts. The report emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to mitigate the impact of the haze this year.
Public Preparedness and Haze Management
The National Environment Agency (NEA) has already issued warnings, urging the public to take steps to protect themselves, such as having enough N95 masks on hand and ensuring that air purifiers are in good working condition. Assoc Prof Simon Tay from SIIA echoed this advice, pointing to the shortages of N95 masks during the 2015 haze crisis as an example of why preparedness is essential.
In conclusion, while the situation may not be as dire as 2015, the SIIA’s red alert signals a serious risk of severe haze in Southeast Asia in 2023. The report encourages Singaporeans to take low-cost precautions to prepare for the possibility of haze, ensuring that they are not caught off guard when the dry season intensifies.
