Travelers remain cautious as China relaxes COVID-19 rules for international arrivals.
SHANGHAI – China’s recent easing of COVID-19 restrictions for international arrivals has sparked optimism for the revival of its multi-billion dollar travel industry. However, countries eager to welcome back Chinese tourists may need to exercise patience.
On December 26, China’s National Health Commission announced that inbound travelers would no longer be required to undergo quarantine starting January 8. Although there are no official barriers preventing Chinese citizens from traveling abroad, this new regulation simplifies their return home.
Prior to the pandemic, China was the world’s largest outbound tourism market, with overseas travelers spending US$127.5 billion (S$171.6 billion) in 2019. Airlines are preparing to expand their services, but everyday Chinese citizens and travel agencies suggest a gradual return to pre-pandemic travel norms.
“It’s encouraging that they’ve announced this, so I can start making my plans,” stated Beijing exporter Tom Guo, 43. Nonetheless, he plans to wait until late spring or summer before traveling abroad, with the United States as his likely destination to visit a sister.
US carrier United Airlines Holdings Inc. is assessing market demand and operational conditions to determine when it will resume additional flights to mainland China, currently operating four weekly flights between San Francisco and Shanghai. Meanwhile, German airline Lufthansa is reconsidering its flight schedules to China following the recent changes.
Duty-free retailer Dufry anticipates a “positive effect at the airports that the Chinese frequent and where we have a presence,” according to a spokesperson. Many travelers, including Guo, plan to stay put until after the Lunar New Year holiday in late January.
The announcement of the impending relaxation of travel rules has spurred some individuals to begin planning their trips. Data from travel platform Ctrip revealed that searches for popular international destinations surged tenfold within half an hour of the announcement, while Qunar reported a seven-fold increase in international flight searches within 15 minutes. Japan, Thailand, and South Korea topped the lists on both platforms.
Despite these encouraging trends, an immediate boom in international travel is not anticipated. The government, which has discouraged international travel since 2020 due to COVID-19 risks, stated in its announcement that outbound travel would be restored “in an orderly manner,” though it did not provide further details.
Flight tracking app VariFlight predicts a robust rebound in flights to and from mainland China by the Labour Day holiday in May, but not before. Currently, international flights to and from China stand at just 8% of pre-pandemic levels. Liu Simin, an official with the tourism division of the China Society for Futures Studies, noted that international travel likely won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.
Ongoing COVID-19 infections in China are a significant factor influencing many people’s travel plans. Some countries, including Japan and India, have mandated that travelers from China present a negative COVID test upon arrival. Economic concerns are also present; Liu emphasized that “it takes time for people to regain confidence after many lost jobs or saw their income decrease during the pandemic.”
A recent consumer study by consultancy Oliver Wyman found that over half of surveyed Chinese individuals would wait from several months to a year before resuming international travel after borders reopen.
Some airlines had already begun preparations prior to Monday’s announcement. For example, Korean Air plans to increase flights between South Korea and China from nine weekly to 15 in January. However, for now, foreign visitor arrivals will be restricted to those holding resident, work, business, student, and family reunification visas, with no timeline announced for the resumption of tourist visas.
One area expected to rebound quickly is international business travel. “The recent announcement clears the way for the resumption of normal business travel, a top advocacy priority for the American business community in China over the past two years,” said AmCham China Chairman Colm Rafferty.
