As Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto’s visits to major powers hint at the foreign policy direction his administration might take.
SINGAPORE: For the first time in Indonesia’s history, a president-elect has made formal overseas visits before officially assuming office. Prabowo Subianto’s recent trips to China and Japan, ahead of his anticipated October inauguration, have attracted significant attention, particularly due to their implications for Indonesia’s foreign relations.
China was Prabowo’s first stop, a move heavily emphasized by Chinese state media, highlighting Indonesia’s strategic importance to Beijing. During his three-day visit, Prabowo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, reinforcing bilateral ties and discussing closer cooperation. Shortly after, he traveled to Japan, where he met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, showcasing a balanced approach to diplomacy.
While these visits have been met with intrigue, analysts urge caution against overinterpreting their significance. According to Christine Susanna Tjhin, co-founder of the Gentala Institute, the visits were likely extensions of Prabowo’s current role as defense minister. She noted that there is no legal framework regulating the authority or activities of an Indonesian president-elect.
Strategic Symbolism
China’s portrayal of Prabowo as Indonesia’s incoming leader underscores Beijing’s intent to strengthen ties with Jakarta under his leadership. China remains Indonesia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $150 billion in 2022. Major Chinese investments, such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway and nickel smelters, solidify economic ties while advancing China’s strategic interests.
Conversely, Indonesia’s defense ministry framed Prabowo’s China visit as part of his current ministerial duties, signaling a more cautious stance. Experts view this diplomatic maneuvering as China’s effort to outpace the United States in fostering relations with Indonesia’s next administration.
Japan’s engagement with Prabowo appeared more subdued but equally significant. As a traditional ally of the U.S. and a longstanding partner of Indonesia, Japan’s emphasis on shared values and regional cooperation complements Jakarta’s balanced foreign policy approach.
Balancing Major Powers
Prabowo’s trips to China and Japan reflect Indonesia’s historical commitment to an “independent and active” foreign policy. This principle emphasizes strategic autonomy, non-alignment with superpowers, and adherence to international law. Analysts believe Prabowo will likely maintain this stance, ensuring Indonesia remains neutral in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
By visiting Japan immediately after China, Prabowo sent a clear signal of his intent to balance relations with major powers. Observers note that this approach aligns with Indonesia’s tradition of diplomatic neutrality, as reflected in its engagements with both China and Japan—nations representing opposing geopolitical camps.
Regional Focus: ASEAN at the Core
Despite these high-profile visits, analysts agree that Prabowo’s administration will prioritize relations with Southeast Asian nations. Traditionally, Indonesian leaders have made their first official visits to ASEAN member states, emphasizing regional stability and economic integration.
Prabowo himself has stressed ASEAN’s importance for regional security and economic collaboration. This commitment echoes the practices of previous leaders, including Joko Widodo and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who prioritized ASEAN in their foreign policy agendas.
The Road Ahead
While Prabowo’s pre-inauguration visits break with tradition, they also offer insights into his administration’s diplomatic priorities. Balancing relations with major powers while strengthening regional ties will likely remain key pillars of Indonesia’s foreign policy under his leadership.
