Analysts discuss the political and strategic factors behind Israel’s intensified operations following two months of relative calm.
After two months of an uneasy ceasefire, hostilities have resumed in Gaza, with Israel launching airstrikes on Tuesday (Mar 18) and announcing a new ground operation the following day. The escalation has resulted in heavy casualties, with Gaza’s health authorities reporting over 400 deaths and more than 500 injuries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the renewed strikes by citing stalled negotiations on extending the truce. Israel also issued a “final warning,” demanding the release of remaining hostages.
Experts highlight multiple factors driving Israel’s actions. Daniel Levy, president of the US/Middle East Project and a former Israeli peace negotiator, pointed out that the attacks were deliberately timed to coincide with the pre-dawn meal during Ramadan, anticipating both civilian casualties and regional reactions.
Domestic politics also play a crucial role. Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer in peace and conflict studies at the University of Sydney, noted that Netanyahu is under public pressure, with protests erupting over his attempt to dismiss Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar. The controversy stems from disputes over responsibility for the Oct 7, 2023, Hamas attack and allegations that Netanyahu’s aides received payments from Qatar-linked entities involved in ceasefire mediation.
Netanyahu’s political survival is also at stake. His coalition government must pass the 2025 state budget by Mar 31, or early elections will be triggered. The far-right Religious Zionism party has threatened to withdraw support if Israel proceeds with a ceasefire extension. Meanwhile, ultranationalist minister Itamar Ben Gvir rejoined Netanyahu’s government on Wednesday, backing continued military action.
The United States’ stance has further shaped developments. Washington was reportedly informed in advance of Israel’s airstrikes, and analysts suggest President Donald Trump’s shifting priorities have given Netanyahu leeway to resume military operations. While the US initially facilitated the ceasefire, recent American military action against the Houthis in Yemen signals a broader geopolitical alignment that may have emboldened Israel.
Despite growing domestic opposition to continued warfare, Netanyahu’s strategy appears to prioritise political consolidation over immediate security concerns. Thousands of Israelis protested on Wednesday, demanding hostage releases and condemning the escalation. Some military reservists have even refused to participate, arguing that renewed fighting undermines efforts to bring captives home.
Analysts warn that unless external pressure mounts, the cycle of violence may continue, further complicating diplomatic efforts to stabilise the region.
